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gao shanwen, chief economist of sdic securities, used the metaphor of "turning on a highway" to clearly explain the complexity and challenges of the economic transformation process. he pointed out that the current insufficient total demand in the domestic economy is a common phenomenon, but it is not a simple "problem", but a complex transformation and upgrading process.
the road to transformation: acceleration and deceleration
there are two different views on economic transformation. one view is that the lack of total economic demand is the price of transformation, and a relatively slow growth period is needed to complete the transformation. the other view is that the situation of insufficient total demand requires measures to stimulate and stabilize total demand in order to restore the price level and reduce the unemployment rate.
there are philosophical differences between these two views, which arise from differences in methods and beliefs and also reflect the complexity of economic transformation.
the real estate market: a unique transformation
china's real estate market is also undergoing transformation and upgrading. in the past few years, the real estate market has undergone continuous adjustments, especially the decline in demand for new homes, and consumers have become more conservative in their consumption and asset allocation behaviors, which has further exacerbated the adjustment of the real estate market.
however, the transformation of china’s real estate market is not simply a “bubble burst.” compared with other countries, china’s real estate market development model and demand-side issues bring unique challenges.
funding and liquidity: key links in transformation
china's real estate industry is at a critical stage of transformation and upgrading, and the pressure on capital cannot be ignored. both debt financing and equity financing face challenges, but the financial system's risk exposure to real estate companies is gradually decreasing, making the transformation of the real estate industry more difficult.
consumption drive: the ultimate goal of economic activities
in any case, the ultimate goal should be to enable consumers to live a better life. we need to think deeply about policies to stimulate consumption in order to promote economic growth and improve social welfare.
