the double-edged sword of exchange rate: rmb trend is intertwined between policy and market

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the gravity of policy: pan gongsheng, the leader of the people's bank of china, made it clear that the rmb exchange rate needs to remain basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level, and stressed the need to prevent the risk of overshooting the exchange rate. he pointed out that the intensity and direction of monetary policy will affect the trend of the exchange rate. recently, the people's bank of china has issued a series of monetary policy combinations, including interest rate cuts, reductions in existing mortgage rates, and the creation of new tools. these policy measures show that positive actions at the policy level will have an impact on the rmb exchange rate that cannot be ignored.

market sentiment: despite the escalating market expectations, the volatility of the rmb exchange rate has also shown a clear trend. on the one hand, the trend of the us dollar is an important factor in determining the direction of the rmb exchange rate. on the other hand, the domestic economic recovery has also provided support for the appreciation of the rmb exchange rate.

forecast and risk: the possibility of "breaking 7" still exists, but the market's expectations for the rmb exchange rate trend are still full of uncertainty.

multiple perspectives:

• policy perspective: the relationship between policies and monetary policies is the key factor in determining the trend of the rmb, and policy orientation will affect the direction of exchange rate changes.
• market perspective: fluctuations in market sentiment are an important factor in determining the trend of the rmb exchange rate, and market expectations will have a significant impact on exchange rate changes.
• economic perspective: domestic economic recovery is an important factor in determining the momentum of rmb appreciation, but we must also pay attention to the impact of changes in the international environment on the domestic economy.

looking ahead: the future direction of the rmb exchange rate depends on the integration of the trend of the us dollar index and the domestic economic situation. the intensity of the policy, the effect of the monetary policy combination and the speed of domestic economic recovery will be the key factors determining the trend of the rmb exchange rate.