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goldman sachs predicts that the us core cpi will rise by 0.23% in august, up 3.17% year-on-year. this makes the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the interest rate meeting next week rise to 65%. however, if the data is lower than expected, the market's "uncertainty" about the extent of the fed's interest rate cut will be further exacerbated.
which situation is more worth looking forward to? it depends on how the market interprets the specific performance of cpi data.
"weak" vs. "hot": how should u.s. stocks respond?
goldman sachs analysts predict that if the cpi data is close to the "weak" level expected by the market, it will bring some "good news" and provide a "sense of security" for the fed to cut interest rates. this will make the risks of some events a thing of the past, and the u.s. stock market will usher in a brief calm.
on the contrary, if the data shows "overheating" or "overcooling", it will bring more uncertainty to the fed's interest rate cut path and the direction of the us economy.
the "cpi" duet: inflation and the labor market
it is worth noting that the emergence of cpi data in august cannot completely replace the dynamic changes in the labor market.
the downward risks of the labor market and economic activity are increasing, which has a certain impact on the fed's decision-making path. against the backdrop of slowing economic activity in the united states, inflation data still needs to be observed.
the fed's path to rate cuts: market expectations and reality
ultimately, the fed's decision to cut interest rates will depend on the market's interpretation of cpi data and the fed's own judgment on inflation and the economic environment.
