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guancha.com reported that citigroup's short-term interest rate trading department said that if the fed sees a weak labor market, it will aggressively relax its policy. however, the market's current expectation for a rate cut this year is about 100 basis points, which suggests that the fed may be more cautious and choose a "step-by-step" approach. deng haiqing pointed out that us inflation is still higher than the fed's policy target, and although the us labor market continues to cool, it still maintains a certain degree of resilience. therefore, the fed does not need to aggressively cut interest rates to stabilize employment.
however, the yen rate hike expectation has also become an important factor. the bank of japan has recently continued to make hawkish remarks, expressing its desire to raise interest rates and saying that there is no preset upper limit on the rate hike, which has once again caused confusion in the yen-dollar carry trade. the policy actions of the us and japanese central banks will have a huge impact on each other.
judging from the motives of the bank of japan, the domestic economic and financial situation in japan does not support further interest rate hikes. the japanese government leverage ratio exceeds 220%, and interest rate hikes will significantly increase the burden on japan's finances. in addition, japan's gdp growth rate has begun to decline, the actual growth rate of residents' consumption is now negative, and the nominal growth rate is also continuing to decline. even if interest rate hikes may have an impact on the yen exchange rate, it will not bring significant improvements to the overall development of the japanese economy.
looking ahead, as the us dollar enters a weak cycle and pressure on the yen exchange rate eases, the necessity and possibility of the bank of japan raising interest rates will decrease.
